The result may be more destructive wildfires like the Calf Canyon-Hermit Peak wildfire in New Mexico. Lake Powell, the lake created by Glen Canyon Dam, at two points in time about four years apart. This map shows how the average air temperature from 2000 to 2020has differed from the long-term average (18952020). The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle LHeureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors. As the summer heat builds over North America, a region of high pressure forms over the U.S. Southwest, and the wind becomes more southerly, bringing moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California. During the winter, moisture travels from the west, as storms from the Pacific Ocean move east. Here, the states varied topography leads to wide changes in climactic conditions that occur across short distances. The new dry-land isthmus blocked the warm ocean currents that had been flowing east-to-west from the Atlantic to the Pacific for more than 100 million years, diverting them into the Gulf of Mexico and ultimately into the western Atlantic Gulf Stream. For temperature, the 2020 monsoon was the hottest on record for the Southwest with an average temperature of 77.1 F, significantly beating the previous record of 76.8 F in 2011 (average is 74.3 F). Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). Frequent showers and thunderstorms continue well into the summer. Left:Jaw with teeth. Glaciers covered most of the world's southern landmasses, which were located over the South Pole. Photo credits: 1916 photo from USGS (public domain), 2013 photo by daveynin (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image resized). Left photoandright photofrom NPS, courtesy David Bustos (public domain). Satellite photo showing smoke from the Calf Canyon-Hermit Creek Fire on May 10, 2022. The state's highest temperatures occur in the northeastern plains, where they can exceed 46C (115F). During the Paleocene to Eocene, the Southwests climate was warm and wet, and large mammals roamed the forested landscape. Page snapshot:Introduction to the climate of the southwestern United States, including present, past, and future climate. Historic data from Livneh et al. The monsoon's intensity waned by the early Jurassic, and the rivers and floodplains were replaced by even larger deserts. Photo by Gregory Smith (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Dark gray is land, white and light gray are submerged areas. In general, it is expected that high alpine glaciers in the Colorado Rockies will disappear as the climate continues to warm. Soil moisture, ground water, and streamflow are part of Drought Monitor calculations (Figure 2), and they are all sensitive to human activities. Volcanic activity intensified in the Southwest, and the Basin and Range region began to form, leading to the topography that is seen in those areas today (i.e., low valleys alternating with high mountain ranges). Average Annual Temperatures in the Southwestern United States. Record high temperatures for the Southwest range from 53C (128F) in Arizona to 47C (117F) in Utah, while record low temperatures range from 56C (69F) in Utah to 40C (40F) in Arizona. Cumbres in the San Juan Mountains receives nearly 7.6 meters (300 inches) of snowfall annually, while Manassa, less than 50 kilometers (30 miles) away in the San Luis Valley, receives only about 63 centimeters (25 inches) of snow a year. Cycads are a group of seed plants that look superficially similar to palms, but are not closely related to them and do not produce flowers. Flows in late summer are correspondingly reduced, leading to extra pressure on the states water supplies. Data from the Northeast Regional Climate Center Applied Climate Information System; 2079-2099 image shows the weighted mean of downscaled CMIP5 models in the LOCA dataset. Large portions of the Southwest have experienced drought conditions since weekly Drought Monitor records began in 2000. Fall- The fall in the Southwest region is warm. What is the climate in the Southwest region in summer? For extended periods from 2002 to 2005 and from 2012 to2020, nearly the entire region was abnormally dry or even drier (see Figure 2). Since 1980, tree mortality in forests and woodlands across the Southwest has been higher and more extensive than at any time during the previous 90 years. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. Wildfire risk map for the United States. Precipitation has become more variable from year to year, and heavy downpours across the U.S. have increased in the last 20 years. Maps and data. The Palmer Index is calculated from precipitation and temperature measurements at weather stations, and has been used widely for many years. Modified fromFigure 11 in Kirby et al. The strengthened Gulf Stream carried more warm, moist air with it into the northern Atlantic, which caused increased snowfall in high latitudes, leading to accelerating cooling. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. Storms form when there is strong convection in the atmosphere. Source:Figure 1 from Erdei et al. Climate changepast, present & future: a very short guide. In the Southwest, average precipitation ranges from only 34 centimeters (13.4 inches) in Utah to 39.9 centimeters (15.7 inches) in Colorado, which reflects the area's general aridity. Ordovician deposits across the Southwest indicate warm, shallow seas rich in invertebrate life. Average temperatures found in the Southwest tend to decrease northward, which is largely the influence of latitude and elevation. In the Southwest, climate change may impact a variety of resources, including water availability in the form of snowpack and spring streamflow, the distribution and composition of plant communities, and fire regimes. Reconstruction created using basemap from the. Increased heat in the Pacific Ocean has altered the weather patterns of Pacific storms, decreasing snowfall in the mountains of western Utah and Arizona. Both fires began as prescribed burns, or fires that were set deliberately with the intention of preventing the formation of future wildfires. Winter precipitation often involves large-scale frontal systems. Although on the western edge of the North American Monsoon, California plant geography indicates it makes a large contribution to the states southern flora. Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). When you take an already highly variable phenomenon like rainfall, add in uncertain regional climate change impacts, and factor in the sparse data record, it gets difficult to make a strong case about exactly how the monsoon rainfall is changing. Photograph by Bill Morrow (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). Winter- The winter in the Southwest region is mild, and hot. In the Silurian and Devonian (430 to 359 million years ago), North America moved north across the equator, and the cycle of warming and cooling was repeated yet again. One especially alarming detail about the Calf Canyon fire is that it was originally set in January 2022. Raucous summer thunderstorms characteristic of the monsoon season are spotty, while drizzly winter storms last longer and engulf large portions of the region. Figure by Ingrid Zabel for PRI's [emailprotected] project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license). Cattle ranches throughout the southwestern states rely on rain-fed grazing forage, making them extremely susceptible to climate change and drought. It depends where you are! In the latest Cretaceous, sea level dropped again and the western Southwest became a broad coastal plain that hosted lush forests, abundant dinosaurs, and large swamps. Left:Warm air rises. A shift in plant type to those better adapted to drier conditions further suggests a change in climate during the Permian. While the state is generally arid, its high western mountains experience more precipitation each year than the desert southwest and the high northeastern plateau do. Calf Canyon-Hermit Creek Fire near Holman, New Mexico, on May 8, 2022. Left:Lake Bonneville's maximal extent during the Pleistocene. By 2070, one can expect up to 38 more days of freeze-free weather each year. Some areas were more than 2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). Wetter-than-average monsoons (green dots) are slightly more common during La Nia years, while drier-than-average monsoons (brown dots) are slightly more common during El Nio years. Light precipitation travels eastward over the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains after dropping heavy snowfall in areas of high elevation. Every part of the Southwest experienced higher average temperatures between 2000 and 2020 than the long-term average (1895-2020). Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397). These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov. Explore how climate change is affecting the Southwest. The book was adapted for the web by Elizabeth J. Hermsen, Jonathan R. Hendricks, and Ingrid Zabel in 2022. The Southwest contributes significantly to climate change. The Southwest has a very unique culture, climate, and geography. Large lakes covered parts of northern Utah and Colorado. How would that result in less total JulyAugust rain? Good question! In 2000-2003, the combination of severe drought and unusually high temperatures led to a significant die-off of pion pines in the Four Corners region of the Southwest. Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23? Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain). Stages in the formation of a thunderstorm. Right: As the vertical column of air turns over, with warm air at the top and cool air at the bottom, the storm begins to dissipate. Drier days and higher temperatures will amplify evaporation, increasing the desertification of already arid areas and affecting natural ecosystems as well as increasing pressure on the water supply for agriculture and cities. Colorado has a generally cool and continental climate with low humidity. Photo by James St. John (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Reconstruction created usingPaleomap(by C. Scotese) forGPlates. Shiprock is part of the San Juan volcanic field and dates to the Oligocene (about 27 million years ago). Precipitation accumulation over the past 12 months, shown as a percent of the average mid-August through mid-August total. July 1August 22, 2021 precipitation shown as a percent of the average July 1August 22, based on 19792020. Images by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory (used following NASA's image use policy). Cold continental conditions dominate the higher altitudes, especially within the Rocky Mountains. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. This circulation brings thunderstorms and rainfall to the monsoon region, providing much of their annual total precipitation. The Southwest, already the driest region in the United States, has become even drier since the mid-20th century, particularly on the hottest days . (Going forward, to avoid having to say northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico over and over, Ill refer to this area as the monsoon region.). Cambrian trilobites from the Bright Angel Shale (Tonto Group), Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. Rugose corals or horn corals (Turbophyllum) from the Mississippian Great Blue Limestone, Cache Canyon, northern Utah, near the border between the Basin and Range and Rocky Mountain physiographic provinces. The lack of moisture in the air allows heat trapped in the earth during daylight hours to rapidly radiate away, leading to cool evenings. There were spots that received large amounts of rain, but overall Nora was a bust. One recent study explored the relationship between the monsoon and wildfires in the Southwest and northern Mexico, finding that monsoon rains were important for ending wildfires. Accessed March2021. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag. As of 2010, bark beetles in Arizona and New Mexico have affected more than twice the forest area burned by wildfires in those states. That timeworn classic is only partially true--May and September can also be great summer months. Center:As warm air rises, cool air sinks. Wind moves the air, promoting mixing. A lock (LockA locked padlock) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. This planting zone combines saline water and alkaline soil with intense sunlight, high temperatures and varying elevations. [7] Pion pines are very drought tolerant and have survived dry periods in the past. Climate.gov image of original from Albuquerque, NM National Weather Service office. By the end of the Permian, the southern ice sheets had disappeared. In southern New Mexico and Arizona, shallow marine deposits, laid down when the ice in Gondwana retreated and sea level rose, alternate with layers of dust blown in when the ice in Gondwana advanced and sea level fell. In winter, rising temperatures have increased the number of frost-free days. The current drought outlooks expect that the drought in Arizona and New Mexico will improve in the short term, but persist. One controversial hypothesis proposes that an area of western Coloradoone of the islands that dotted the early Carboniferous seawas, in fact, glaciated. A= Tropical (equatorial),B= Arid,C= Temperate (warm temperate),D= Continental (cold),E= polar. Average temperatures range from about 60 to 80 F in Paris, while in Nice and on the south coast they range from around 80 to 90 F. In recent years, heatwaves in Paris and elsewhere have brought record-breaking temperatures, sometimes exceeding 100 degrees F. Summer storm systems are common. Please click here to see any active alerts. . The location of the Southwest and the topographical extremes across this area strongly influence its weather. Official websites use .gov At the close of the Mesozoic, global climatealthough warmer than todaywas cooler than at the start of the era. The North Rim is 8000 feet (2438meters) to 9000 feet (2743 meters) above sea level. The highest point in these mountains has a relief of 1572 meters (5157 feet) over the surrounding landscape, and the mountains are tall enough to receive snowfall. Zack also mentioned our good friend El Nio! After the end-Cretaceous bolide impact, the climate may have cooled briefly, but it soon rebounded to a warmer state. Percent of total annual precipitation occurring during JulySeptember, based on 19792020 using CPC Unified rain-gauge-based data. I listened to the Southwest Climate Podcast from CLIMAS, the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, to learn more about what affects the monsoon and its rainfall, and how Monsoon 2021 is shaping up, and reached out to the podcast co-hosts, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins, for help with this post. In addition, temperature increases and recent drought have resulted in earlier spring snowmelt and decreased snow cover on the lower slopes of high mountains, bringing about more rapid runoff and increased flooding. Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation, Image by The High Fin Sperm Whale, created from images by NOAA National Weather Service training material (Wikimedia Commons, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons, Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, Photo by Richard Stephen Haynes (Wikimedia Commons, Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Photos of YPM IP 529539 by Jessica Utrup, 2015 (Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History/YPM, CC0 1.0 Universal/Public Domain Dedication, Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International, Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397), Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation, Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Dr. David Goodrich, NOAA (NOAA Photo Library ID wea04192, NOAA's National Weather Service, via flickr, Images by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, Photos by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin (NASA Earth Observatory, Photo by Santa Fe National Forest (National Interagency Fire Center on flickr, public domain), https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/what-is-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/recent-climate-change/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-mitigation/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-adaptation/, https://earthathome.org/quick-faqs/#climate, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International licenses. Seems likely that conditions in the GM may influence annual variations in the monsoon. Droughts also contribute to increased pest outbreaks and wildfires, both of which damage local economies, and they reduce the amount of water available for generating electricityfor example, at the Hoover Dam.1. Has hurricanes and tornadoes. Photo by James St. John (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). A strong difference in air temperature at different heights creates instability; the warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential (stored) energy the warm air has to move up, and the more potential for a storm. Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. Copyright 2021 Paleontological Research Institution. Drier conditions occurred through the 1920s/1930s, again in the 1950s, and since 1990, when the Southwest has seen some of the most persistent droughts on record (see Figure 3). The Drought Monitor is a more recent and more detailed index based on several other indices (including Palmer), along with additional factors such as snow water content, groundwater levels, reservoir storage, pasture/range conditions, and other impacts. Maps modified from maps by Wade Greenberg-Brand, originally published inThe Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the SouthwesternUS, after figure 3 in L. Grande (2013) The Lost World of Fossil Lake. Unfortunately, unpredictable winds spread the flames, which, combined with dry conditions, caused the Calf Canyon and Hermit Peak fires to grow beyond control. PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. (1) The North American Monsoon, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by David Adams and Andrew Comrie, provides a comprehensive overview of the North American Monsoon and related research through the late 20th century. The distance between Santa Fe and Las Vegas, New Mexico, is about 65 kilometers (about 40.5 miles). Yet this landscape actually supports a vast array of plants and animals, along with millions of people who call the Southwest home. In New Mexico, climate is characterized by arid, semiarid, or continental conditions, with light precipitation, low humidity, and abundant sunshine. PRI's free resource to help you learn about the Earth and its history. Monsoon region averaged over all land gridpoints, 20N37N, 102W115W. Summer- The summer in the Southwest region is hot and desert-like. Smog (haze caused by air pollution) over Salt Lake City, Utah, 2016. The Southwest is typically dry, hot, and humid. Left photoandright photoby NPS/Michael Quinn (Grand Canyon National Park via flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, images cropped and resized). Water vapor animation for the afternoon of August 22, 2018 showing the monsoon circulation and thunderstorm formation (dark blue, green, dark red). Regarding changes that have already occurred, the report finds modest evidence that the monsoon rainfall has intensified since the 1970s, and this has been partly attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. Loess is often, though not exclusively, associated with dry areas around glaciers. This mortality is attributed to higher temperatures, drought, and the eruption of bark beetles that are able to survive through warmer winter weather. Download related technical information PDF, https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx, A Closer Look: Temperature and Drought in the Southwest. However, although climate change is predicted to enhance the intensity of severe weather, there is currently no way to calculate what effect climate change will have on the frequency of specific storm eventsfor example, we might see more powerful tornados, but we do not know if we will see more of them. An increased frost-free season length also leads to increased water demands for agriculture and heat stress on plants. More on that later Now, lets take a sojourn through some North American Monsoon basics (1). The inner canyon temperatures are extreme and hot, with a lower elevation of about 2400 feet (732 meters). The summer precipitation total for the CONUS was 9.48 inches, 1.16 inch above average, ranking eighth wettest in the historical record. Other elements involved in the ignition and growth of fires and the risks they pose to people living in the Southwest include (but are not limited to) forest management practices, development patterns, and human behavior (intentionally or unintentionally starting fires). Andrews Glacier in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, at two points in time. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid-January. Funnel clouds (developing tornadoes) over El Paso County, Colorado, March 29, 2019. As Pangaea reached its greatest size during the early Triassic, the monsoons intensity increased, and the vast dune deserts of the late Permian were replaced by rivers and floodplains. (2019)Biology Letters15: 20190114(Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, images cropped, reconfigured, resized, and relabeled). Thus, each Southwestern state experiences both extreme highs and lows. While most of the evidence for cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary comes from the deep sea, fossil mammals in the Rocky Mountains show clear evidence of a change from forests to grasslands, which is associated with global cooling. Convection occurs when buoyant warm air rises (moves up) while denser cool air sinks (moves down). National Drought Mitigation Center. Water is already scarce in the Southwest, so every drop is a precious resource. Its not over yet, but possible that the overall monsoon rainfall in Arizona will end up being the highest on record. Warmer temperatures also make it easier for insect pests to overwinter and produce more generations. The Southwest Region climate in the United States is often associated with extremes. (2) In fact, comparing 1955, a year with very similar total rainfall in Tucson as this year, to this year shows temperature between July 1 and August 23 were on average more than 2 degrees F warmer. Photoandreconstructionby National Park Service/NPS (public domain). Thick salt deposits accumulated in the northwestern Four Corners area as the seas evaporated. Since the early 1900s, the Southwest has experienced wetter conditions during three main periods: the 1900s, 1940s, and 1980s. Home Regions Southwest Key Points: The formation of precipitation also causes electrical charging of particles in the atmosphere, which in turn produces lightning. Accessed March 2021. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag. Rainfall associated with the monsoon is very important for the region. In fact, this monsoon may turn out to be the wettest on record for some places! Paleontological Research Institution Special Publication 38, Ithaca, NY, 200 pp. The Southwest experiences nearly every variety of extreme weather; heat snaps and cold waves, droughts, floods, blizzards, and even tornados are all considerations for residents of the southwestern states. Where the land was exposed, deposits of dust (loess) accumulated and were blown across much of the Southwest. Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). And yet another element of the monsoon system that needs more study to resolve. Annual Weather SummaryNovember 2022 to October 2023. Shallow seas invaded the continent, ultimately covering the whole area until the late Carboniferous. Notice that North America has separated from Africa and there is a spreading center in the Central Atlantic Ocean. The last glacial advance of the modern ice age peaked some 18,000 years ago.