Oct. 13 2022, Published 3:08 p.m. Support your business with world-leading science and technology. AccuWeather says that the lingering water vapor in the atmosphere from the eruption could cause a warmer winter than normal but that the magnitude of the effect is unknown. For example, we can see a list of teleconnection patterns monitored by CPC, and I believe that only the PNA and TNH have a strong connection to ENSO among that list. December-February: January-March: In mid-January, the Farmers Almanac says, temperatures could drop as low as 40 degrees below zero in parts of the region. Flannel, hot chocolate and snowshoes are in the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, which is predicting a shivery 2022-2023 winter for most of the United States. The southeastern United States snowfall is perhaps an unlikely scenario at first, but just one intense cold outbreak could bring some snowfall further far into the south. What its also doing though, is helping develop the kind of south-westerly airflow which is spinning in some of these periods of wet and windy weather, but also the warmer kind of continental air over the UK much more than average for the time of year.. In the West, the drought persists. This is can be seen in the NOAAs latest official Winter 2022/2023 temperature forecast for the United States. Maximum temperature 7C. Just wanted to Note that not all of the Southwest is receiving Robust Moisture. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 17:00, In reply to Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico by Tony Arnhold, Science & information for a climate-smart nation, torrential rains and heavy mountain snows, NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). Europe is not known to have any specific/direct influences, as it is too far from the source regions. Percent of normal U.S. precipitation over the past 30 days (December 25, 2022, through January 23, 2023) after a series of weather events known as atmospheric rivers, fueled by tropical moisture, flooded the U.S. West with rain and snow. That's why Nat used model simulations to look at the relationships here, finding that there's no preferred pattern to the sea surface temperature for wet SW winters. That doesnt mean that the different flavors of La Nia cannot be important for Southwest U.S. precipitation, and its worth trying to better understand the simulated La Nia precipitation variations. (Image credit: Getty images), Video highlights from NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Outlook that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation and drought. By Eva Hagan. Share. Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years. The season will be relatively normal this year. I need a storm to track south of me without occluding for once. Despite the rocky end of the year, Southwest reported a $539 million profit for 2022. In the January forecast, there is no real improvement. This cold ocean phase is entering its final stage and will break down as we get into Spring. Fortunately, right on cue, the Farmers' Almanac has released its 2022/2023 winter weather forecast. Between 2013 and 2022, we delivered an organic revenue CAGR of 11. . It was the largest snowfall of the season so far for Halifax and other communities of Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. is expected to have a. Submitted by Matt on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 11:44. I like your work, but would encourage you to look up and not down for a cause of the weirdness (it's literally snowing in most of California today) that we are experiencing this year. Looking at the winter predictions for 2022-2023, there may be some weather you need to look out for. It looks like an interesting study, and it relates to last month's blog post on the discrepancy between observed and modeled Pacific sea surface temperature trends. An important global weather factor is ENSO. Over North America, most of the country has below-average snow accumulation, except for the northwestern United States, upper Midwest, and southwestern Canada. When we plug those values in, we get (0.725)2/(0.194)2 = 14, which is why I conclude that chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations caused by sea surface temperature variations for December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation during La Nia events. There are also some hints of a cold event reaching down to the south-central United States. The Met Office adds: What about the moisture? Winter has arrived, but what's the potential for cold and snow in the UK? In addition to this, there is a reduced chance of stormy weather and gales. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast. Since the ocean is the same in all the simulations, the models will produce a range of outcomes that account for the role of atmospheric chaos for each individual La Nia. That forecast extends to some popular California ski resorts. According to NWS Tucson there have been 25 LaNina winters here since 1950. December finally brings the cold. Regions further east, on the other hand, will probably experience precipitation levels more typical for the time of year. Distribution of DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) in the Southwest U.S. (region defined in the figure above) for all 21 La Nias from 1951-2020. Im basically doing a signal versus noise calculation. Its interesting to note that the La Nia dry signal over the Southwest U.S. appears to be a little more robust in February-March than December-January, as 15 of the 21 events classified as La Nia in December-February had drier-than-average conditions in February-March. We will look at two highly regarded seasonal weather forecasting systems. Difference in DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) between the wettest 20% and driest 20% of Southwestern U.S. La Nia outcomes simulated by the GFDL SPEAR climate model. ENSO phases significantly influence tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. Its conceivable that such differences could influence precipitation in the Southwest U.S., but these differences are much smaller than the amplitude of the largest average La Nia tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, which approach 2 Therefore, it is difficult to see how such small sea surface temperature differences could have an influence that is comparable with the average La Nia influence. Weather.coms official winter outlook like NOAAs and AccuWeathers calls for above-normal temperatures in the South, while far-northern parts of the continental United States manage to stay below average, these conditions being driven by La Nia. But that does not mean it has no impact. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). How harsh will winter be? One of the main features of the UK's weather this year has been the seemingly indomitable prevalence of mild conditions, which has catapulted 2022 into strong contention for the warmest year on record. Regarding whether the increased "waviness" is linked to Arctic amplification, we do not have a scientific consensus on such a link. The Majority of these Atmospheric Rivers have missed this area and only the last month has some of the area received measurable Moisture. Often with the cold easterly winds, and the air travelling over so much dry land, there is very little moisture in it to form the snow and we end up with some crisp winter sunshine instead. How unusual were these Southwestern wet conditions in the first two-thirds of a La Nia winter? We are going to show you their forecast for the upcoming winter, but first, a warning. NOAAs new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which well be rolling out in the coming years.. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). The southern United States is forecast to have a drier-than-normal winter season. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Wed, 03/01/2023 - 12:10, In reply to Arctic amplification (?) The figure above shows the high-minus-low precipitation average differences between these two groups. A person clears their car of snow to go to work, in Provo, Utah, on Feb. 22, 2023. The question is, whats different about those years? Below we have an Official NOAA CPC probability forecast graphic, which shows the long-range forecast of the central ENSO region. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:47. Patchy cloud with some clearer skies. . As the monsoon rain band is situated south of the Equator, the Mekong sub-region . From the United States to Canada and over Europe, we will look at the latest Full snowfall forecasts and trends, extending the view into early Spring. This area is still feeling theeffects of the past 3 VERY Dry Winters. The storied old journal's extended weather forecast predicts "plenty of snow, rain and mush as well as some record-breaking cold temperatures! With the La Nia climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.. the Desert Southwest if another snow-lacking . December is favored to be the chilliest month on the Eastern Seaboard, with lower-than-normal temperatures expected from the Great Lakes down into parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The February snow depth forecast shows the snowfall potential reducing further over most of Europe. 16 day. During this period, the prevailing winds continue to blow from the northwest or northeast. We can see that the latest ECMWF forecast shows less snowfall over most of the continent compared to last months forecast for the entire Winter season. Winter Forecast 2021 - 2022 #3 Welcome to our Second Winter Forecast 2021 - 2022! Although such climate models are rather sophisticated and reliable, they are imperfect. It says that temperatures there could drop 4 degrees below normal for the month something that could result in a damaged citrus crop and stunned iguanas. The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. The La Nina is set to break down going into Spring, with a warm phase (El Nino) chances increasing for late 2023. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Sun, 02/26/2023 - 20:08, In reply to Thanks Nat for this cogent by Clara Deser. This question often boils down to whether there were subtle variations in the sea surface temperature pattern that preconditioned the atmosphere for wetter-than-usual conditions in the region (2). Temperatures overall will be below average but may gradually trend up later. The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through . AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok and his team say that this winters setup is complicated by several other factors including the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption in the early days of 2022. A major weather divide is int he forecast. This is all thanks to blocking high pressure to the north-west of the UK, which will prevent low pressure bringing mild air from the west and will instead favour colder air from the north and east. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 12:57. Drier conditions also develop in the southeastern United States as La Nina produces a weaker subtropical jet stream and less moisture over the southern United States. The forecast, which actually was released earlier than usual this year amid "growing concern over the rising costs of heating oil," warns that this winter will have people across much of the country "shaking, shivering, and shoveling." 4th grader reports Friday's weather forecast 1 day ago. My calculation that follows confirms this suspicion. The Farmers' Almanac has officially released their 2022 winter forecast. The February snowfall forecast shows snowfall potential remaining over the northern parts of the United States. After this, the December Full Moon will fall on December 19 and the Winter Solstice - marking the shortest day of the year - will occur on December 21. Precipitation-wise, the period from November to January is expected to bring below-average precipitation and thus diminished early-season snow and rain chances in much of the southern half of the country, with the greatest chances of below-normal precipitation forecast from coastal South Carolina and Florida all the way to the shores of far Southern California. I will just add that I only focused on one impact and one particular region (Southwest U.S. precipitation), but it would be interesting to do a more comprehensive analysis of possible distinctions between La Nina flavors in the climate model simulations. We will see winds increasing out of the southwest today and tonight 20-30 mph, gusting up to 45-50 . Widespread extreme drought continues to persist across much of the West, the Great Basin, and the central-to-southern Great Plains. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 10:32. into central Pacific vs. east Pacific La Nia events, we end up with a pretty small sample size. Alex Burkill, senior meteorologist at the Met Office, said: Its likely to be the warmest spell weve had at the end of October since 2014, when we had the warmest Halloween on record. Therefore, the variations among these 21 ensemble-averaged values, quantified as a standard deviation of 0.194 mm/day, largely reflect the effects of the different sea surface temperature patterns among the 21 La Nias. Comments must be on-topic; free of profanity, name-calling, or ad-hominem attacks; and cannot repeat misinformation about climate that has been widely debunked by authoritative sources. New for the 2023 edition are weather summaries and maps for all four seasons in 2023. UKMO uses a different parameter than the ECMWF but correlates directly with snowfall also. We always focus on trends and probabilities, but still, variation is key. We did have a high-amplitude MJO phase 3, which often leads to wet conditions on the West Coast. That means forecasts will bust from time to time, and success or failure must be evaluated over many forecasts. We first have to take a quick look at the leading global weather driver for the upcoming winter season, La Nina. Glasgow and Belfast are predicted to reach 16C, although this could be followed by a period of more typical October weather. One way we could try to address this question is to group both the wettest and driest La Nias over the Southwest in December-January and then see if there are notable differences in the sea surface temperature patterns that occurred during wetter La Nias versus drier La Nias. With temperatures so warm winter and the chance of snow feel somewhat distant. In this blog post, I hope to get this conversation rolling! We can run multiple simulations in which the ocean is always the sameforced to match observed sea surface temperatures, including all La Nias from 1951-2020but the starting atmospheric conditions are very slightly different each time. Overall, the UKMO shows a decent snow season across the northern United States. Most areas dry, breezy and very mild, though a few showers perhaps affecting southern England for a time. However, the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for parts of Scotland, including Highlands, Eilean Siar and Strathclyde, and Northern Ireland on Friday, meaning residents should expect heavy rain and some flooding of a few homes and businesses. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 18:35, In reply to sampling differences by Nathaniel.Johnson. This calm outlook could well continue, with the Met Office putting the chances of this winter being 'windy' at just 5%. Rick Wiley / Arizona Daily Star Facebook The figure below shows that most (13 of 21) of the La Nias from 1951-2020 had below-average December-January precipitation in this region (1), although wet early winters during La Nia clearly are not that unusual. There appears to be a warming trend in our Octobers over the recent years, with many of them bringing milder than average spells.. What is this gigantic hole that has appeared in the fields of Turkey? So, the bottom line is that the relationship between La Nina amplitude and Southwest U.S. precipitation does not appear as simple as one (or at least I) would expect based on this analysis, and it's something I would like to understand better. This figure indicates that SPEAR produces very wet early winter conditions in the Southwest for some of the La Nia simulations, with the largest differences between the wet and dry groups exceeding twice the 1991-2020 climatology (more than 200%). Last winter, Boston finished the season with. I dont want to be guilty of self-promotion, but I recently published a. Difficult to impossible travel across wide swaths of U.S. due to coast-to-coast storm. During the back half of the winter, AccuWeather says, colder conditions finally will enter the country and drop cold air into the central United States, bringing heavy snow to parts of the central Plains and the Rocky Mountains. December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country." In the Great Lakes region,. Remaining very mild. We dont end up with enough events in each group, and the noise of chaotic weather variability hides the signal we are trying to identify. Such projections reflect typical conditions that develop during La Nia events, which are associated with an episodic cooling of ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and . The average seasonal forecast for the United States and Canada shows a typical La Nina snowfall pattern. Feeling cold. Ultra long range detailed weather forecast for South England. Overall we still see less snowfall than normal for the first Winter month. As forecasted, the La Nina conditions will last over the Winter but will weaken. With the observations, I did try setting a higher La Nina amplitude threshold (DJF Nino 3.4 SST anomaly amplitude greater than 1 deg. As far as ENSO goes the one difference this winter seems to be the east tropical Pacific was not as cold as the prior years when the SSTs in the Nino 1.2 at times were from -2 to -.2.5 while the western tropical pacific was near neutral. Durango Herald 3:40 AM MST on Mar 4, 2023. (NOAA) The U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. In the East, the almanac predicts above-average snowfall for a vast area, from North Carolina to central New England to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as well as the Great Plains. The data used to produce these graphics is the latest available at the present time, from mid-November. To analyze the effect of different sea surface temperature patterns on early-winter precipitation in the Southwest during La Nia, I first defined two groups: the wettest 20% and driest 20% of simulations. But take note of the trough of equal temperatures probability extending down low into the south-central states. Southwest U.S. Newfoundland, Labrador; Nova Scotia, Prince Edward, New Brunswick, Quebec; Ontario; Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan; British Columbia; 2023 Summer Extended Forecast; 2022-2023 Extended Winter Forecast; 2022-2023 Canadian Extended Winter Forecast; 20 Signs Of A Hard Winter Ahead; Weather Lore; Weather History; Our Forecast Accuracy Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed, click the like button () there to see more of our, A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming, collapsing the Polar Vortex and potentially impacting the weather in late-month and early Spring, Spring forecast 2023: The La Nina Winter pattern is forecast to extend as we head into Spring despite the breakdown of the cold ocean anomalies, The Coldest Air of 2023 Plunges from Canada into the United States, sending northern states into Deep Freeze and More Snow for Midwest in the coming days, A Major Winter Storm is Forecast to Snow Blanket Millions from Central Plains to Northeast U.S. through mid This Week, A strong Stratospheric Warming event is about to start, impacting the Polar Vortex as we head into the final month of the Winter Season. A lock ( This will impact the Friday evening commute with delayed travel likely. While their predictions won't delight those who hate changeexpect back-and-forth weather patterns across the countryfor the most part, winter won't be harsh. Average DecemberJanuary precipitation anomalies (percent of the 1991-2020 climatology) for all La Nia events from 1951-2020, defined as La Nia occurring in DecemberFebruary. If there aren't any climate researchers looking into this now, I'm sure there will be some soon! However, there is another way which requires very little wind at all high pressure that becomes established across the UK for a long time in winter. . While December was above-average as far as the temperature goes, January was a different story. The prevailing Northeast Monsoon typically persist s until late March 2023 in the ASEAN region . Again, you can see more snowfall than normal, covering a large area from western Canada down into the northwestern United States and the far upper Midwest. Much of this snowfall does not settle, and the figures for snow on the ground (snow lying) are much lower. There are many patterns that influence U.S. weather, but only a few have a strong connection to slowly varying (and seasonally predictable) sea surface temperatures. If youre wondering what sort of calculations led to this conclusion, then I will give you all the details here. The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November. As the figure above shows, much of the western U.S. was pummeled from late December through mid-January, as a series of nine atmospheric rivers dumped more than a seasons worth of rain and snow in a few short weeks. The December snowfall forecast shows the snowfall increase over the northwestern United States. The blue bars indicate the chance of La Nia for each three-month period into winter 2022-23, according to this forecast from early May 2022. . I follow that convention here, though Im really calculating the inverse, meaning the noise-to-signal ratio. In line with December's blocking high pressure, the lack of weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic mean the month is expected to be much drier than average for western areas, especially in Scotland. The video below shows the developing cold ocean anomalies in the equatorial Pacific as we head deeper into Fall, boosted by the strong easterly trade winds. The displaced jet stream brings colder temperatures and winter storms from the polar regions down into the northern and northwestern United States. We see an increased snow potential over the upper Midwest, with some other areas across the Midwest having normal snowfall amounts forecast this month (0/white areas). Unfortunately, a dry winter is predicted for the Southwest states, which won't help the drought situation. Also, the southwest is expected to be dry during the winter months, which won't help the drought. A first look at Winter 2022/2023 forecast shows an obvious influence of the third-year La Nina phase. That total is deceptive as many areas in Tucson area had 6-7 inches today, Meanwhile Washington DC and Philadelphia have had less than 1/2 inch snow this winter, Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 16:22. The logical conclusion is that, according to the climate model, unusually heavy Southwest U.S. precipitation during December-January of La Nia has very little to do with the sea surface temperatures and instead is more closely tied to short-term and seasonally unpredictable weather conditions, as captured by the variations among the 30 simulations for a given La Nia. This is mainly a result of warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in late Winter by UKMO in the south/southwest. But in general, AccuWeather is predicting a season of less snowfall on the Eastern Seaboard. Submitted by Tony Arnhold on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 16:38. Biden set for first veto on Senate bill opposing climate-friendly investing, Global carbon dioxide emissions hit new highs last year, says IEA report, Young women are criticized for this vocal tic but it helps whales survive, winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. We either require the cold air to meet a rain-bearing weather front and turn it into snow, or for the cold air to pick up enough moisture from its short journey across the North Sea, to form showers.. If we were to zoom into the tropical region, where sea surface temperatures have the greatest global climate impact, we would see some sea surface temperature differences of up to 0.2 C in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. This is typically on the western and southern border of low-pressure systems, where the northerly and northwesterly flow pulls down cold air from the north. The Met Office's three-month outlook, for example, suggests this winter is half as likely as usual to be classified as wet. To solidify this conclusion, I continued my investigation by calculating how much the variations in the La Nia sea surface temperature pattern contribute to the variations in Southwest U.S. DecemberJanuary precipitation in the SPEAR simulations. Here is what the Met Office is predicting for the coming weeks. . The almanac forecasts cold and wet conditions down even into Florida, with the worst of the cold forecast for January. Rain arriving across western and north-western areas, heavy at times and accompanied by gusty winds. 1 Quote; Link to comment . It's an event unprecedented in our lifetimes. TUCSON, Ariz. (KGUN) March marches in like a lion! The Ohio winter 2022-2023 predictions are predicated on this being the second year for the current La Nina weather pattern. (Please understand we are not monitoring the blog 24/7.). Although the official winter forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will not come out for another few weeks, the agencys Climate Prediction Center does issue official outlooks for temperature and precipitation up to 13 months in advance. August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. This was aligned with the Farmer's Almanac predictions, which stated that January 2022 would be hit with frigid temperatures. The winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics, a weather consulting firm, should put more pep in the step of snow lovers. The hardworking forecasters at NOAAs Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round, said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast. But what does that mean for snowfall potential? And, of course, it's too soon for any predictions of a White Christmas. Everything I read details how little we understand and have modeled such an occurrence- a gigantic and long-lasting (it will take years for the extra water vapor to dissipate) change to something that we think of (and model) as utterly constant and stable. That part of the country also is expected to receive less snow than normal. Sunshine and showers on Sunday. Is there any other teleconnections that can offer an explanation as to why certain La Nina years were wet in california like FY10/11. View the weather with our interactive map. Just checking the maps at this site, we can see some regions, like you mention, that have been drier than normal over the past 60 days. Let us know. Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data) Download Image Temperature