Being persuaded is defeat. [3] The original aim of the tournament was to improve geo-political and geo-economic forecasting. American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, "Forecasting tournaments: Tools for increasing transparency and the quality of debate", "Identifying and Cultivating "Superforecasters" as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions", "The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics", "Accounting for the effects of accountability", "Accountability and ideology: When left looks right and right looks left", "Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the ideological beholder? The Superforecasting book focused on shorter-range forecasts, the longest of which, about 12 months, being only as long as the shortest forecasts in the Expert Political Judgment project. Its a set of skills in asking and responding. Philip E. Tetlock is the Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Democracy and Citizenship, Professor of Psychology and Professor of Management. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). Beginners rarely make Dunning-Kruger errors. In this mode of thinking, changing your mind is a sign of intellectual integrity, not one of moral weakness or a failure of conviction. The test group outperformed the control group significantly and tended to pivot twice as often. We often take on this persona . The mission was aborted and Luca barely escaped drowning in his spacesuit due to a mechanical failure that wasnt properly diagnosed. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know. He leads Marie-Helene to decide for herself to vaccinate her child. Tetlock, P. E. (2011). Tetlock, P.E., (2000). Binary bias: The human tendency to seek clarity by reducing a spectrum of categories to two opposites. Challenge network: A trusted group of peers to point out blind spots and errors in our thinking. Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as Fox. This scientific mind is a key through line in the book; it offers a superior path to improved thinking, true knowledge, and lifelong learning. Cognitive bias: Seeing what we want to see. Its easy to notice when others need to change their opinions, but difficult for us to develop the same habit for ourselves. He also identified "overpredicting change, creating incoherent scenarios" and "overconfidence, the confirmation bias and base-rate neglect." Quick-To-Read Conversation Starters For The Stubbornly Ambitious. And if you absolutely mustand you better have a good reasondisobey them., The Government-funded research of the Good Judgment Project has manifested into a public platform called Good Judgment Open, where they recruit talented people to be trained to become a superforecaster.13They also have a global network of superforecasters who offer analytic services. Visit www . How Do We Know? How politicized is political psychology and is there anything we should do about it? *These modes run throughout Adam Grants book, Think Again. For THE book on predictions and decisions in the face of uncertainty, see Philip Tetlocks Superforecasting., Your email address will not be published. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? Politicians work well in government settings. I was most interested in the ideas from Part 1 and wish he focused on those more. The second part explores how to encourage and influence other individuals to engage in rethinking. So argues Wharton professor Adam Grant in a fascinating new interview. Wilbur Wright: Honest argument is merely a process of mutually picking the beams and motes out of each others eyes so both can see clearly.. Being persuaded is defeat. (2001). The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable. Scientist: Grant appends this professional worldview to Tetlocks mindset models. If necessary, discuss your orders. Tetlock also realized that certain people are able to make predictions far more accurately than the general population. When he is pretty sure of how it is going to work, and he tells you, This is the way its going to work, Ill bet, he still is in some doubt. De-biasing judgment and choice. Alternative view: intelligence is the ability to rethink and unlearn, i.e. Make your next conversation a better one. ", This page was last edited on 18 February 2023, at 16:04. Task conflict: Arguments over specific ideas and opinions (e.g. Part IV: Conclusion document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); document.getElementById( "ak_js_2" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Your email address will not be published. Author recommends twice a year personal checkups: opportunities to reassess your current pursuits, whether your current desires still align with your plans, and whether its time to pivot. Professor Tetlock, who's based at the University of Pennsylvania, famously did a 20-year study of political predictions involving more than 280 experts, and found that on balance their rate of . Daryl has gone on to befriend a number of former members who have similarly disavowed their past beliefs. Her research focuses on decision-making, specifically, the variables that influence the decisions we make that are often excluded from rational models of decision-making, such as emotions and the effects of context.15He has also collaborated with Dan Gardner, who works at the University of Ottawas Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs.16In addition to lecturing on risk, forecasting, and decision-making, Gardner offers consulting services to enable people to become better decision-makers, with one of his clients being none other than the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.17Gardner has also worked as a journalist and author18and he pennedSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Predictionalong with Tetlock. the usefulness of hypothetical-society experiments in disentangling fact and value judgments of the impact of competing policy proposals. With appointments in the School of Arts & Sciences and the Wharton School, Tetlock works at the intersection of political science, psychology, and management science. Changing your mind is a sign of intellectual integrity and a response to evidence. Its the habits we develop as we keep revising our drafts and the skills we build to keep learning., Chapter 10: Thats Not the Way Weve Always Done It. Newsroom. Outrage goes viral and makes for better sound bites. Tetlock, P. E., Visser, P., Singh, R., Polifroni, M., Elson, B., Mazzocco, P., &Rescober, P. (2007). Tetlock and Gardner (2015) also suggest that the public accountability of participants in the later IARPA tournament boosted performance. Desirability bias: The tendency to act in a manner that enhances your acceptance or approval from others. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin . In Behind the Science of Intelligence Analysis, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Good teachers introduce new thoughts, but great teachers introduce new ways of thinking., Education is more than the information we accumulate in our heads. Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson Fail the Implicit Association Test?" **Chapter 1: A Preacher, a Prosecutor, a Politician, and a Scientist ** Rethinking is not only an individual skill, its also an organizational one. How Can We Know? Rank and popularity are not proxies for reliability. Experiments can inform our daily decisions.. [24][25][26][27] Rather, humans prefer to believe that they have sacred values that provide firm foundations for their moral-political opinions. 1993-1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford. He has served on the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley (19791995, assistant professor), the Ohio State University (the Burtt Endowed Chair in Psychology and Political Science, 19962001) and again at the University of California Berkeley (the Mitchell Endowed Chair at the Haas School of Business, 20022010). Use a steel man (instead of straw man) and consider your opponents strongest argument. This allows them to make more adaptive decisions, which foster success within the company. Between 1987 and 2003, Tetlock asked 284 people who "comment[ed] or offer[ed] advice on political and economic trends" professionally to make a series of predictive judgments about the world . Superforecasting is both a fascinating leap into the art of decision making as well as a manual for thinking clearly in an increasingly uncertain world. This research interest led him to discover that the predictions most people including experts make about future outcomes are not usually significantly better than chance. He found that overall, his study subjects weren't. In collaboration with Greg Mitchell and Linda Skitka, Tetlock has conducted research on hypothetical societies and intuitions about justice ("experimental political philosophy"). Essentially, there are three modes, according to Tetlock: Preacher: In Preacher mode, we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting it with great devotion. Tetlock describes the profiles of various superforecasters and the attributes they share in the book he wrote alongside Dan Gardner,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. 1988-1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley. This research argues that most people recoil from the specter of relativism: the notion that the deepest moral-political values are arbitrary inventions of mere mortals desperately trying to infuse moral meaning into an otherwise meaningless universe. How Can We Know? Tetlock has advanced variants of this argument in articles on the links between cognitive styles and ideology (the fine line between rigid and principled)[31][32] as well as on the challenges of assessing value-charged concepts like symbolic racism[33] and unconscious bias (is it possible to be a "Bayesian bigot"?). The training, techniques and talent described in my book "Superforecasting" can help your organization manage strategic uncertainty. As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. But a small amount of knowledge can create big problems with the Dunning-Kruger trap as confidence climbs faster than competence. View being wrong as a good thing; an opportunity to learn something new.