And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson Jr on Day 2 of the draft, a bigger back who excelled in pass protection. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. His average DVOA of 0.085% would rank him 31st in the NFL in 2009, right behind Rashard Mendenhall. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. Jonathan Morris: I can't endorse a high pick on Javonte Williams when he will yield a lot of work to Melvin Gordon III. Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. Pat Fitzmaurice: The appeal is that he's an inexpensive lead back. I'll pass on Barkley at cost. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. Downing, USA Today Sports. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. The 4.29 ADY by the Steelers offensive line would be tied for 8th place in the NFL in 2009. Unfortunately, he needs to stay hyper-efficient on the ground to stay fantasy relevant, as Ravens running backs have gotten a 70/30 carry split with Jackson over the last three years. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. Matt Waldman: After studying Swift's best weeks in 2020, the Lions' offseason acquisitions, and Coach Lynn's analysis of his backs, I'm less enthusiastic about Swift. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. Emmitt Smith 4. Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was still in line to start after he took a pay cut to stay with the Texans, but then the team added Phillip Lindsay after he and the Broncos parted ways, which embroils Johnson in a frustrating committee backfield in an offense that is likely to be among the league's worst. Andrew Davenport: I've had ample opportunities to draft Gaskin and just haven't been able to do it. His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. Andy Hicks: When looking at the Falcons backfield, it is clear there is no one currently there to challenge Mike Davis to start the season. On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. This three-headed committee with a healthy Jones is bad news for Fournette and means he is way overvalued at current ADP. The additions of Mike Boone and Javonte Williams haven't done anything to dispel this idea. Yep. He was used more as a receiver than anything. Jacobs could easily wind up as a player who does a lot of work between the 20s with no meaningful fantasy production. It's not entirely his fault. "Matthew Berry, ESPN. Henry has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, and that limited production as a receiver is an issue. This likely puts Gibson two injuries away from a full workload, and Robinson is capable of taking away money touches in the redzone as well. Heading into this season, their offensive line is mediocre, their quarterback situation is a mess, they have a new coach, and the rest of the skill position players are uninspiring. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? However, James Robinson is a better runner than Etienne at this point. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. So as we can see, Bettis had about the 9th best run blocking offensive line in the NFL during his career. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. But after he sat a game due to injury, the Bears' lead runner came out hot after their bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. Gaskin is an easy fade at his current price. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris could struggle behind his offensive line and not garner an elite share of red zone touches. Simpson 13. That is still great, but not quite as good as many people have him ranked. Photo: Isaiah J. Unfortunately, Dobbins is on a team with an elite rushing quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. But so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is, and all three running backs are likely to play plenty. Single These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. "Footballguys is the best premiumfantasy football But he's 29, he's undersized, he had a hard time staying healthy last year, he adds little as a pass catcher, and the San Francisco backfield is awfully crowded now. Anthony Amico: Dobbins is being drafted as if he has a far greater stranglehold on this Ravens backfield than he likely will. Adrian . Tatum Bell isn't the only Lions running back of the 2000s to get snakebitten. Unlike Lindsay, Williams can supplant Gordon at the goal line, and there's some possibility that Williams takes over the backfield right away. Leave him there for the next guy to take him. Quarterback Lamar Jackson will always cap Dobbins' upside in total carries and goal-line looks. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. 9 Tim Brown Via nfl.com I was one of many who publicly voiced outrage over the fact that Tim Brown had to wait until 2015 get his Hall of Fame honor. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. In June 2008, Sports Illustrated polled nearly 500 players on the most overrated athlete in baseball, and Jeter was numero uno. At 5-foot-6 and 191 pounds, Cohen is too small and one-dimensional to be used as a lead back even if David Montgomery gets hurt. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. Victoria Geary: Sanders had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders to be an every-down back. Yeah, us, too. There is no other way to explain a mid-range RB3 price when he is in one of the worst possible situations in Houston. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. Nyheim Hines is one of the premier pass-catching options, and Marlon Mack's health is a wildcard in the Colts' backfield rotation. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. His knee injury involved multiple ligament tears, and the Giants are likely to bring him along slowly. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. Christian McCaffery and Nick Chubb, running backs. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. Etienne's selection early in the late first signals he should have an immediate opportunity, especially with a new coaching staff in place. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. There have been personnel changes and a change in offensive coordinator to Matt Canada. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. My, my, how the game has changed. He was a liability during pass plays because of his inability to catch passes. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. Also, Jalen Hurts is poised to siphon a few short-range scores from the running back position. However, I would ask - where is the upside to tilt a league here? He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. Cam Akers, LA Rams | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB13. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. . And ultimately, he was targeted by Miami ahead of an early-round draft pick when he finally hit unrestricted free agency. His ADP has been climbing recently, and while his price says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, he's still being overvalued at his current price. The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. Ben Cummins: Im a big fan of Antonio Gibsons talent, but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27.