I think we needed somebody like him.. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. What happened to our Democratic Party? I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. Theres too much corruption. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. They run the gamut from. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. This claim is basically absurd. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. They need to take care of the older people here. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? The morale of the people up there is bad. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Required fields are marked *. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. We believe that there are two main reasons. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Its too big. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. People need to get a job, get out and work. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. "If. He is his own worst enemy.. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Its gone, Jacobs said. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Pre-performance Lobby events. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. I quit voting once out of the union.. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. I think all politicians are crooks. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. Medicare is becoming a joke. The counties are also mostly small and rural. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Republican Gov. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC I just want Trump in. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. He didnt vote in 2016 either. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888.